Serbia's democratic trajectory continued to decline during the period covered by the BTI 2026 Country Report (February 2023 - January 2025). The report, published by the Bertelsmann Stiftung as part of its global assessment of transformation toward democracy and a market economy across 137 countries, documents the consolidation of political control by President Aleksandar Vučić and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) across all branches of government - including the executive, legislature, and judiciary - despite the president's largely ceremonial constitutional role.
Electoral conditions worsened over the assessment period. The government's manipulation of elections intensified, with the report citing the unjustified splitting of local elections into two rounds as a mechanism enabling illegal voter migration - the practice of registering voters at addresses where they do not reside in order to influence results. Opposition parties, while collectively capable of posing a serious challenge to the government, remain fragmented by ideological differences and leadership mistrust, and face systematic smear campaigns by pro-government media.
Civil society and independent media continued to operate under significant pressure. The report documents harassment by police and secret services, including illegal use of spyware against government critics, as well as strategic lawsuits against public participation (SLAPP) targeting independent outlets. The government maintains control over key media regulatory bodies and manipulates the media market in favor of outlets aligned with its messaging. Political polarization sharpened further, particularly following the student-led anti-corruption protests of 2024/25, which the government framed as a foreign-orchestrated attempt at a "color revolution."
On the economic side, GDP growth reached 3.8% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024, driven primarily by public spending rather than structural reform. Inflation peaked at 12.4% in 2023 before falling to 4.6% in 2024. Serbia nonetheless remains among the European countries most exposed to poverty risk, with 28.1% of the population at risk as of 2022, and one of the highest inequality levels in Europe (Gini index: 33.1). Government spending accounted for 44.8% of GDP in 2023, and nearly a quarter of the workforce is employed in the public sector. A free trade agreement with China entered into force in 2024, increasing China's role as a trading partner. Serbia's EU accession process remained stalled - no new negotiation chapters have been opened since 2021.
Electoral conditions worsened over the assessment period. The government's manipulation of elections intensified, with the report citing the unjustified splitting of local elections into two rounds as a mechanism enabling illegal voter migration - the practice of registering voters at addresses where they do not reside in order to influence results. Opposition parties, while collectively capable of posing a serious challenge to the government, remain fragmented by ideological differences and leadership mistrust, and face systematic smear campaigns by pro-government media.
The government's manipulation of elections intensified, with the report citing the unjustified splitting of local elections into two rounds as a mechanism enabling illegal voter migration - the practice of registering voters at addresses where they do not reside in order to influence results.
Civil society and independent media continued to operate under significant pressure. The report documents harassment by police and secret services, including illegal use of spyware against government critics, as well as strategic lawsuits against public participation (SLAPP) targeting independent outlets. The government maintains control over key media regulatory bodies and manipulates the media market in favor of outlets aligned with its messaging. Political polarization sharpened further, particularly following the student-led anti-corruption protests of 2024/25, which the government framed as a foreign-orchestrated attempt at a "color revolution."
On the economic side, GDP growth reached 3.8% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024, driven primarily by public spending rather than structural reform. Inflation peaked at 12.4% in 2023 before falling to 4.6% in 2024. Serbia nonetheless remains among the European countries most exposed to poverty risk, with 28.1% of the population at risk as of 2022, and one of the highest inequality levels in Europe (Gini index: 33.1). Government spending accounted for 44.8% of GDP in 2023, and nearly a quarter of the workforce is employed in the public sector. A free trade agreement with China entered into force in 2024, increasing China's role as a trading partner. Serbia's EU accession process remained stalled - no new negotiation chapters have been opened since 2021.
